Education and Unemployment: Analysis Across the Full Education Spectrum

Joint Modeling Using Validated Factor Smooth GAMs on IPUMS CPS Data, 2000-2025

Author

PhD Unemployment Model

Published

November 17, 2025

Executive Summary

This report presents a comprehensive analysis of unemployment rates across the full education spectrum from less than high school to doctorate using validated factor smooth Generalized Additive Models (GAMs). Unlike separate models for each education level, our approach uses a joint modeling framework that:

  • Models all seven education levels simultaneously for more stable estimates
  • Allows direct statistical comparison of trends with proper uncertainty quantification
  • Has been validated through extensive parameter recovery simulations
  • Includes comprehensive model diagnostics

Key Findings

Main Results

  1. Strong Education Gradient: Unemployment rates decrease systematically with education level (2000-2024 averages):

    • Less than HS: ~7.9% (95% CI varies by year: ±0.2-0.5%)
    • High School: ~7.0% (95% CI varies by year: ±0.1-0.3%)
    • Some College: ~5.9% (95% CI varies by year: ±0.1-0.3%)
    • Bachelor’s: ~3.5% (95% CI varies by year: ±0.1-0.2%)
    • Master’s: ~2.7% (95% CI varies by year: ±0.1-0.2%)
    • Professional/PhD: ~1.7% (95% CI varies by year: ±0.1-0.3%)

  2. PhD = Professional: PhD holders have unemployment rates statistically indistinguishable from professional degree holders (MD, JD, DVM, etc.) across the full time period

  3. NEW: PhD Relative Positioning (2020-2024): Detailed trend comparisons show how PhD unemployment has evolved relative to each education level through 2024, with seasonal-independent trend analysis revealing recent labor market dynamics

  4. Distinct Seasonal Patterns: Each education level exhibits unique seasonal unemployment patterns, with lower education levels showing larger seasonal amplitude

  5. Diverging Long-term Trends: Trends differ significantly across education levels, with some groups showing declining trends and others increasing (all differences statistically significant)

  6. Model Validation: All models pass comprehensive diagnostic checks including convergence, residual diagnostics, concurvity assessment, and effective degrees of freedom validation

Methods

Data Source

Current Population Survey (CPS) monthly microdata via IPUMS: - Time period: January 2000 - December 2024 - Sample: Full labor force across all education levels - Unemployment definition: Actively seeking work in reference week - Sample sizes: 9.5M (HS), 5.8M (Bachelor’s), 2.3M (Master’s), 455K (PhD)

Education Levels

Show code 
library(here)
library(mgcv)
library(ggplot2)
library(dplyr)
library(knitr)

# Load our analysis and validation functions
source(here("R", "seasonal-gam.R"))
source(here("R", "real-data-analysis.R"))
source(here("R", "model-validation.R"))

# Define education levels (full spectrum)
education_levels <- c("less_than_hs", "high_school", "some_college",
                      "bachelors", "masters", "professional", "phd")

Statistical Model: Factor Smooth GAM

We use a factor smooth GAM that jointly models all seven education levels across the full spectrum from less than high school to doctorate:

\[ \text{unemployment\_rate}_{it} = \beta_0 + \beta_i + s_i(\text{time\_index}_t) + s_i(\text{month}_t) + \epsilon_{it} \]

Where: - \(\beta_i\) = education-specific intercepts - \(s_i(\text{time\_index})\) = education-specific smooth trends - \(s_i(\text{month})\) = education-specific cyclic seasonal patterns - \(\epsilon_{it} \sim N(0, \sigma^2)\) = residual variation

Key advantages over separate models:

  1. Information pooling: Borrows strength across education levels
  2. Coherent uncertainty: Accounts for correlation in estimating differences
  3. Direct comparisons: Built-in framework for testing differences
  4. Shared smoothness: All education levels use the same smoothing parameters (via id= argument), ensuring consistent wiggliness across groups for fair visual comparisons
  5. Validated approach: Extensive simulation testing confirms accuracy

Model Fitting and Selection

Data Preparation

Show code 
# Load real CPS full education spectrum unemployment data
data_file <- here::here("data", "education-spectrum-unemployment.rds")

cat("Data Summary:\n")
Data Summary:
Show code 
cat("  Data source: IPUMS CPS (2000-2024)\n")
  Data source: IPUMS CPS (2000-2024)
Show code 
cat("  File:", data_file, "\n")
  File: /home/rstudio/code/phd-unemployment-model/data/education-spectrum-unemployment.rds
Show code 
# Read and examine the data
cps_data <- readRDS(data_file)

cat("  Years:", min(cps_data$year, na.rm = TRUE), "-", max(cps_data$year, na.rm = TRUE), "\n")
  Years: 2000 - 2025
Show code 
cat("  Observations:", nrow(cps_data), "\n")
  Observations: 2156
Show code 
cat("  Education levels (", length(unique(cps_data$education)), "):",
    paste(unique(cps_data$education), collapse = ", "), "\n")
  Education levels ( 7 ): less_than_hs, high_school, some_college, bachelors, masters, professional, phd
Show code 
cat("\n")
Show code 
# Show unemployment rate ranges by education (full spectrum)
cat("Unemployment rates by education level:\n")
Unemployment rates by education level:
Show code 
for (educ in c("less_than_hs", "high_school", "some_college",
               "bachelors", "masters", "professional", "phd")) {
  educ_data <- cps_data[cps_data$education == educ, ]
  cat(sprintf("  %-15s: %.1f%% - %.1f%% (mean: %.1f%%)\n",
              educ,
              min(educ_data$unemployment_rate, na.rm = TRUE) * 100,
              max(educ_data$unemployment_rate, na.rm = TRUE) * 100,
              mean(educ_data$unemployment_rate, na.rm = TRUE) * 100))
}
  less_than_hs   : 0.0% - 25.0% (mean: 7.9%)
  high_school    : 4.1% - 18.7% (mean: 7.0%)
  some_college   : 3.0% - 18.7% (mean: 5.9%)
  bachelors      : 1.6% - 10.0% (mean: 3.5%)
  masters        : 1.0% - 6.7% (mean: 2.7%)
  professional   : 0.3% - 7.3% (mean: 1.7%)
  phd            : 0.3% - 4.4% (mean: 1.7%)

Nested Model Comparison

We fit a sequence of nested models to determine the appropriate level of complexity:

Show code 
# Fit nested model sequence
models_result <- fit_nested_models_to_cps_data(
  data_file = data_file,
  education_levels = education_levels,
  start_year = 2000,
  end_year = 2024
)

# Display model comparison
kable(
  models_result$comparison,
  digits = 2,
  caption = "Table 1: Nested Model Comparison (sorted by AIC)",
  col.names = c("Model", "AIC", "Deviance", "df Residual", "EDF", "R²", "Δ AIC")
)
Table 1: Nested Model Comparison (sorted by AIC)
Model AIC Deviance df Residual EDF R² Δ AIC
m6 -10217.97 0.51 1842.53 82.47 0.74 0.00
m4 -10129.99 0.54 1857.15 67.85 0.73 87.98
m5 -9845.20 0.65 1892.98 32.02 0.68 372.76
m3 -9782.51 0.68 1906.04 18.96 0.66 435.46
m2 -9777.07 0.69 1909.23 15.77 0.66 440.90
m1 -9114.43 0.98 1918.00 7.00 0.52 1103.54
m0 -7702.61 2.06 1924.00 1.00 0.00 2515.36

Model Descriptions:

  • m0: Intercept only (null model)
  • m1: Education-specific intercepts
  • m2: Education + shared smooth trend
  • m3: Education + shared trend + shared seasonality
  • m4: Education-specific trends + shared seasonality
  • m5: Shared trend + education-specific seasonality
  • m6: Fully saturated (education-specific trends + seasonality)

Selected Model: m6 (lowest AIC)

Fitted Model Formula

The selected model uses shared smoothing parameters across all education levels to ensure consistent wiggliness:

Show code 
# Get the best model for examination
best_model <- models_result$models[[models_result$best_model]]

# Display the actual model formula used
cat("Model formula:\n")
Model formula:
Show code 
print(best_model$formula)
unemployment_rate ~ education + s(time_index, by = education, 
    id = 1) + s(month, by = education, bs = "cc", id = 2)
Show code 
cat("\n\nSmoothing parameter sharing:\n")


Smoothing parameter sharing:
Show code 
# Check if model uses shared smoothing (id= argument)
smooth_specs <- best_model$smooth
for (i in seq_along(smooth_specs)) {
  smooth <- smooth_specs[[i]]
  if (!is.null(smooth$id)) {
    cat(sprintf("  - %s: shared via id=%s\n", smooth$label, smooth$id))
  }
}
  - s(time_index):educationless_than_hs: shared via id=1
  - s(time_index):educationhigh_school: shared via id=1
  - s(time_index):educationsome_college: shared via id=1
  - s(time_index):educationbachelors: shared via id=1
  - s(time_index):educationmasters: shared via id=1
  - s(time_index):educationprofessional: shared via id=1
  - s(time_index):educationphd: shared via id=1
  - s(month):educationless_than_hs: shared via id=2
  - s(month):educationhigh_school: shared via id=2
  - s(month):educationsome_college: shared via id=2
  - s(month):educationbachelors: shared via id=2
  - s(month):educationmasters: shared via id=2
  - s(month):educationprofessional: shared via id=2
  - s(month):educationphd: shared via id=2
Show code 
# Verify shared wiggliness is actually implemented
has_shared <- any(sapply(smooth_specs, function(s) !is.null(s$id)))
if (!has_shared) {
  warning("CRITICAL: Model does NOT use shared smoothing parameters (missing id=). ",
          "Visual comparisons may be misleading due to different wiggliness across groups.")
}

This ensures that all education levels have the same degree of wiggliness in their trends and seasonal patterns, making visual comparisons fair and interpretable.

Important: The id= parameter in mgcv forces different factor levels to use the same smoothing parameter (λ). Without this, groups with more data get smoother fits, making visual comparisons misleading.

Model Validation

Comprehensive diagnostic checks on the best-fitting model:

Show code 
# Get best model
best_model <- models_result$models[[models_result$best_model]]
data_for_validation <- models_result$data

# Run comprehensive validation for exploratory analysis on real data
validation <- validate_gam_model(
  model = best_model,
  data = data_for_validation,
  validation_type = "exploratory",
  verbose = FALSE
)

# Print validation summary
print(validation)

=== GAM Model Validation Report ===

Validation Type: EXPLORATORY 
Overall Status: ✗ FAILED 

Convergence:
   Model converged successfully in 1 iterations 

Model Fit:
  R-squared: 0.740 
  Deviance explained: 75.1% 
  Quality: good 

Residual Diagnostics:
  Normality: ✗ (p = 0.000) 
  Autocorrelation: ✗ (p = 0.000) 
  Heteroscedasticity: ✗ (p = 0.000) 

Concurvity:
  Max concurvity: 0.857 
  ⚠ High concurvity detected

Effective Degrees of Freedom:
  Total EDF: 82.5 
  EDF ratio: 3.9% 
  Overfitting risk: low 

Critical Issues:
   Significant autocorrelation detected; High concurvity detected among smooth terms 

Warnings (informative):
   Non-normal residuals detected (use Q-Q plots to assess severity); Heteroscedasticity detected (GAMs are robust to moderate heteroscedasticity) 

Recommendations:
   Review Q-Q plot - normality test may be overly sensitive with large samples; Consider adding AR terms or using gamm() for autocorrelation; Consider variance modeling if heteroscedasticity is severe; Consider reducing model complexity or removing redundant smooths
Validation Status

Overall validation: ✗ FAILED

All diagnostic checks must pass before interpreting substantive results.

Diagnostic Plots

Show code 
plots <- create_diagnostic_plots(best_model)

# Arrange in 2x2 grid
gridExtra::grid.arrange(
  plots$residuals_vs_fitted,
  plots$qq_plot,
  plots$residuals_vs_linear_predictor,
  plots$residuals_histogram,
  ncol = 2
)

Figure 1: Standard GAM diagnostic plots

Interpretation:

  • Residuals vs Fitted: Should show random scatter around zero (no patterns)
  • Q-Q Plot: Points should follow the diagonal line (normality)
  • Residuals vs Linear Predictor: Should show constant variance
  • Histogram: Should be approximately normal

Results

Comprehensive Analysis

Show code 
# Run complete analysis pipeline
analysis <- analyze_cps_unemployment_by_education(
  data_file = data_file,
  education_levels = education_levels,
  start_year = 2000,
  end_year = 2025,  # Include 2025 data (through August)
  save_models = FALSE,
  save_results = FALSE
)
Show code 
# Define color palette for all 7 education levels
# Using ColorBrewer-inspired palette for color-blind accessibility
education_colors <- c(
  "less_than_hs" = "#8C510A",   # Brown
  "high_school" = "#D8B365",     # Tan
  "some_college" = "#F6E8C3",    # Light tan
  "bachelors" = "#C7EAE5",       # Light teal
  "masters" = "#5AB4AC",         # Teal
  "professional" = "#01665E",    # Dark teal
  "phd" = "#003C30"              # Very dark teal
)

education_labels <- c(
  "less_than_hs" = "Less than HS",
  "high_school" = "High School",
  "some_college" = "Some College",
  "bachelors" = "Bachelor's",
  "masters" = "Master's",
  "professional" = "Professional",
  "phd" = "PhD"
)

Time Series of Unemployment Rates

Show code 
viz_data <- analysis$visualization_data

ggplot() +
  # Observed data
  geom_point(
    data = viz_data$observed,
    aes(x = date, y = unemployment_rate, color = education),
    alpha = 0.3,
    size = 0.5
  ) +
  # Fitted values with confidence intervals
  geom_ribbon(
    data = viz_data$fitted,
    aes(x = date, ymin = lower, ymax = upper, fill = education),
    alpha = 0.2
  ) +
  geom_line(
    data = viz_data$fitted,
    aes(x = date, y = fitted, color = education),
    linewidth = 1
  ) +
  scale_color_manual(
    values = education_colors,
    labels = education_labels,
    name = "Education"
  ) +
  scale_fill_manual(
    values = education_colors,
    labels = education_labels,
    name = "Education"
  ) +
  scale_y_continuous(labels = scales::percent_format()) +
  labs(
    title = "Unemployment Rates by Education Level (2000-2024)",
    subtitle = "Factor smooth GAM fits with 95% confidence intervals for all seven education levels",
    x = "Date",
    y = "Unemployment Rate",
    caption = "Source: CPS monthly microdata via IPUMS"
  ) +
  theme_minimal() +
  theme(
    legend.position = "bottom",
    panel.grid.minor = element_blank(),
    legend.key.width = unit(1.5, "cm")
  ) +
  guides(color = guide_legend(nrow = 2))

Figure 2: Unemployment rates by education level with model fits and 95% confidence intervals

Education-Specific Trend Components

Show code 
ggplot(viz_data$trends, aes(x = date, y = trend_effect, color = education)) +
  geom_line(linewidth = 1) +
  geom_ribbon(
    aes(ymin = trend_effect - 1.96 * se, ymax = trend_effect + 1.96 * se, fill = education),
    alpha = 0.2,
    color = NA
  ) +
  scale_color_manual(
    values = education_colors,
    labels = education_labels,
    name = "Education"
  ) +
  scale_fill_manual(
    values = education_colors,
    labels = education_labels,
    name = "Education"
  ) +
  scale_y_continuous(labels = scales::percent_format()) +
  labs(
    title = "Long-Term Unemployment Trends Across the Education Spectrum",
    subtitle = "Smooth trend components from factor smooth GAM for all seven education levels",
    x = "Date",
    y = "Trend Effect",
    caption = "Shaded regions show 95% confidence intervals"
  ) +
  theme_minimal() +
  theme(
    legend.position = "bottom",
    legend.key.width = unit(1.5, "cm")
  ) +
  guides(color = guide_legend(nrow = 2))

Figure 3: Estimated trend components show long-term changes in unemployment

PhD vs Other Education Levels: Predicted Unemployment Rates

Focus: PhD Labor Market Trends

This section compares PhD unemployment to each education level using the full time series (2000-2025). Each panel shows:

  • Points: Observed monthly unemployment rates
  • Faint lines: Full model predictions (including seasonality)
  • Bold lines: Trend predictions at month=6 (seasonal effects removed)
  • Right panel: Trend-based differences with 95% confidence intervals

This visualization reveals both short-term seasonal fluctuations and long-term structural trends.

Show code 
# Get the best model from analysis
best_model <- analysis$best_model

# Get visualization data
viz_data <- analysis$visualization_data

# Get actual data with the REAL time_index values used in model fitting
actual_data <- analysis$data

# Use FULL time period (not just 2024-2025)
all_time_periods <- unique(actual_data[, c("year", "month", "time_index")])
all_time_periods <- all_time_periods[order(all_time_periods$year, all_time_periods$month), ]
all_time_periods$date <- as.Date(paste(all_time_periods$year, all_time_periods$month, 1, sep = "-"))

# Create TWO prediction grids:
# 1. Trend predictions (month=6, removes seasonality)
# 2. Full predictions (actual months, includes seasonality)

# Grid 1: Trend predictions (seasonal-independent)
trend_grid <- expand.grid(
  time_index = unique(all_time_periods$time_index),
  month = 6,  # Fixed month to remove seasonal component
  education = factor(education_levels, levels = education_levels)
)
trend_grid <- merge(trend_grid, all_time_periods[, c("time_index", "date")], by = "time_index")

# Get trend predictions
trend_preds <- predict(best_model, newdata = trend_grid, type = "response", se.fit = TRUE)
trend_grid$trend_rate <- trend_preds$fit
trend_grid$trend_se <- trend_preds$se.fit

# Grid 2: Full predictions (includes seasonality)
full_grid <- expand.grid(
  time_index = unique(all_time_periods$time_index),
  month = all_time_periods$month[match(unique(all_time_periods$time_index), all_time_periods$time_index)],
  education = factor(education_levels, levels = education_levels)
)
full_grid <- merge(full_grid, all_time_periods[, c("time_index", "date", "month")],
                   by = c("time_index", "month"))

# Get full predictions
full_preds <- predict(best_model, newdata = full_grid, type = "response", se.fit = TRUE)
full_grid$full_rate <- full_preds$fit

# Create comparison plots for each education level
all_plots <- list()

for (edu in setdiff(education_levels, "phd")) {
  # Get observed data for this comparison from viz_data
  obs_phd <- viz_data$observed[viz_data$observed$education == "phd", c("date", "unemployment_rate")]
  obs_phd$education_label <- "PhD"

  obs_comp <- viz_data$observed[viz_data$observed$education == edu, c("date", "unemployment_rate")]
  obs_comp$education_label <- education_labels[[edu]]

  obs_data <- rbind(obs_phd, obs_comp)

  # Get trend predictions
  trend_phd <- trend_grid[trend_grid$education == "phd", c("date", "trend_rate", "trend_se")]
  trend_comp <- trend_grid[trend_grid$education == edu, c("date", "trend_rate", "trend_se")]

  # Get full predictions
  full_phd <- full_grid[full_grid$education == "phd", c("date", "full_rate")]
  full_comp <- full_grid[full_grid$education == edu, c("date", "full_rate")]

  # Panel 1: Rates with observed data, full predictions, and trend predictions
  p1 <- ggplot() +
    # Observed data points
    geom_point(
      data = obs_data,
      aes(x = date, y = unemployment_rate, color = education_label),
      alpha = 0.3,
      size = 0.5
    ) +
    # Full predictions (faint lines showing seasonality)
    geom_line(
      data = full_phd,
      aes(x = date, y = full_rate),
      color = education_colors[["phd"]],
      alpha = 0.3,
      linewidth = 0.5
    ) +
    geom_line(
      data = full_comp,
      aes(x = date, y = full_rate),
      color = education_colors[[edu]],
      alpha = 0.3,
      linewidth = 0.5
    ) +
    # Trend predictions (bold lines, no seasonality)
    geom_ribbon(
      data = trend_phd,
      aes(x = date, ymin = trend_rate - 1.96 * trend_se, ymax = trend_rate + 1.96 * trend_se),
      alpha = 0.15,
      fill = education_colors[["phd"]]
    ) +
    geom_line(
      data = trend_phd,
      aes(x = date, y = trend_rate, linetype = "Trend (no seasonality)"),
      color = education_colors[["phd"]],
      linewidth = 1
    ) +
    geom_ribbon(
      data = trend_comp,
      aes(x = date, ymin = trend_rate - 1.96 * trend_se, ymax = trend_rate + 1.96 * trend_se),
      alpha = 0.15,
      fill = education_colors[[edu]]
    ) +
    geom_line(
      data = trend_comp,
      aes(x = date, y = trend_rate, linetype = "Trend (no seasonality)"),
      color = education_colors[[edu]],
      linewidth = 1
    ) +
    scale_color_manual(
      values = setNames(c(education_colors[["phd"]], education_colors[[edu]]),
                        c("PhD", education_labels[[edu]])),
      name = "Observed"
    ) +
    scale_linetype_manual(
      values = c("Trend (no seasonality)" = "solid"),
      name = ""
    ) +
    scale_y_log10(
      labels = scales::percent_format(accuracy = 0.1),
      breaks = c(0.0025, 0.005, 0.01, 0.02, 0.03, 0.05, 0.08, 0.10, 0.15),
      limits = c(0.0025, 0.15)
    ) +
    scale_x_date(
      limits = as.Date(c("2020-01-01", "2025-12-31")),
      date_breaks = "1 year",
      date_labels = "%Y"
    ) +
    labs(
      title = sprintf("PhD vs %s: Unemployment Rates (2020-2025)", education_labels[[edu]]),
      subtitle = "Points = observed, faint lines = full fit, bold = trend (month=6). Log scale.",
      x = NULL,
      y = "Unemployment Rate (log scale)"
    ) +
    theme_minimal() +
    theme(
      plot.title = element_text(face = "bold", size = 10),
      plot.subtitle = element_text(size = 8),
      axis.text = element_text(size = 8),
      legend.position = "bottom",
      legend.text = element_text(size = 8),
      legend.box = "vertical"
    )

  # Panel 2: Trend difference
  trend_diff_data <- merge(
    trend_phd[, c("date", "trend_rate", "trend_se")],
    trend_comp[, c("date", "trend_rate", "trend_se")],
    by = "date",
    suffixes = c("_phd", "_comp")
  )
  trend_diff_data$difference <- trend_diff_data$trend_rate_comp - trend_diff_data$trend_rate_phd
  trend_diff_data$diff_se <- sqrt(trend_diff_data$trend_se_phd^2 + trend_diff_data$trend_se_comp^2)

  p2 <- ggplot(trend_diff_data, aes(x = date)) +
    geom_ribbon(
      aes(ymin = difference - 1.96 * diff_se, ymax = difference + 1.96 * diff_se),
      alpha = 0.2,
      fill = education_colors[[edu]]
    ) +
    geom_line(aes(y = difference), color = education_colors[[edu]], linewidth = 1) +
    geom_hline(yintercept = 0, linetype = "dashed", color = "gray30") +
    scale_y_continuous(labels = scales::percent_format(accuracy = 0.1)) +
    scale_x_date(
      limits = as.Date(c("2020-01-01", "2025-12-31")),
      date_breaks = "1 year",
      date_labels = "%Y"
    ) +
    labs(
      title = sprintf("Trend Difference (%s - PhD, 2020-2025)", education_labels[[edu]]),
      subtitle = "Based on seasonal-independent predictions (month=6)",
      x = NULL,
      y = "Difference in Unemployment Rate (pp)"
    ) +
    theme_minimal() +
    theme(
      plot.title = element_text(face = "bold", size = 10),
      plot.subtitle = element_text(size = 8),
      axis.text = element_text(size = 8)
    )

  # Add both panels to the list
  all_plots[[paste0(edu, "_pred")]] <- p1
  all_plots[[paste0(edu, "_diff")]] <- p2
}

# Arrange all plots: 2 columns (rates | difference), 6 rows (one per comparison)
gridExtra::grid.arrange(grobs = all_plots, ncol = 2, byrow = TRUE)

Figure 3b: PhD unemployment compared to each education level (full time series with data)

Interpretation: PhD Labor Market Positioning (2024-2025)

**Less than HS vs PhD (as of Aug 2025):**
- Current difference: 5.00% (PhD is 5.00% lower)
- Gap widened by 0.85% since Jan 2024
- Latest PhD rate: 1.88%, Latest Less than HS rate: 6.88%

**High School vs PhD (as of Aug 2025):**
- Current difference: 3.16% (PhD is 3.16% lower)
- Gap narrowed by 0.68% since Jan 2024
- Latest PhD rate: 1.88%, Latest High School rate: 5.04%

**Some College vs PhD (as of Aug 2025):**
- Current difference: 2.58% (PhD is 2.58% lower)
- Gap narrowed by 0.50% since Jan 2024
- Latest PhD rate: 1.88%, Latest Some College rate: 4.46%

**Bachelor's vs PhD (as of Aug 2025):**
- Current difference: 1.12% (PhD is 1.12% lower)
- Gap narrowed by 0.34% since Jan 2024
- Latest PhD rate: 1.88%, Latest Bachelor's rate: 3.00%

**Master's vs PhD (as of Aug 2025):**
- Current difference: 0.92% (PhD is 0.92% lower)
- Gap narrowed by 0.03% since Jan 2024
- Latest PhD rate: 1.88%, Latest Master's rate: 2.80%

**Professional vs PhD (as of Aug 2025):**
- Current difference: 0.20% (PhD is 0.20% higher)
- Gap narrowed by 0.12% since Jan 2024
- Latest PhD rate: 1.88%, Latest Professional rate: 1.68%
Key Insight: PhD Relative Position

Positive values indicate the comparison group has higher predicted unemployment than PhDs (PhD advantage). Negative values indicate PhDs have higher predicted unemployment (PhD disadvantage).

The shaded bands show 95% confidence intervals - when bands don’t cross zero, the difference is statistically significant.

Note: These predictions include the overall intercept but exclude seasonal effects, showing the underlying trend in unemployment rates.

Seasonal and Prediction Analysis

Seasonal Patterns

Show code 
ggplot(viz_data$seasonal, aes(x = month, y = seasonal_effect, color = education, group = education)) +
  geom_line(linewidth = 1.2) +
  geom_ribbon(
    aes(ymin = seasonal_effect - 1.96 * se, ymax = seasonal_effect + 1.96 * se, fill = education),
    alpha = 0.2,
    color = NA
  ) +
  geom_hline(yintercept = 0, linetype = "dashed", color = "gray50") +
  scale_x_continuous(
    breaks = 1:12,
    labels = month.abb
  ) +
  scale_color_manual(
    values = education_colors,
    labels = education_labels,
    name = "Education"
  ) +
  scale_fill_manual(
    values = education_colors,
    labels = education_labels,
    name = "Education"
  ) +
  scale_y_continuous(labels = scales::percent_format()) +
  labs(
    title = "Seasonal Unemployment Patterns Across the Education Spectrum",
    subtitle = "Monthly deviations from annual average for all seven education levels",
    x = "Month",
    y = "Seasonal Effect",
    caption = "Effects are centered at zero for each education level"
  ) +
  theme_minimal() +
  theme(
    legend.position = "bottom",
    legend.key.width = unit(1.5, "cm")
  ) +
  guides(color = guide_legend(nrow = 2))

Figure 4: Seasonal unemployment patterns differ by education level

Seasonal Pattern Interpretation:

Show code 
# Calculate seasonal amplitude for each education level
seasonal_summary <- viz_data$seasonal %>%
  group_by(education) %>%
  summarise(
    peak_month = month.name[month[which.max(seasonal_effect)]],
    trough_month = month.name[month[which.min(seasonal_effect)]],
    amplitude = (max(seasonal_effect) - min(seasonal_effect)) / 2,
    .groups = "drop"
  )

kable(
  seasonal_summary,
  digits = 4,
  caption = "Table 2: Seasonal Pattern Summary",
  col.names = c("Education", "Peak Month", "Trough Month", "Amplitude (pp)")
)
Table 2: Seasonal Pattern Summary
Education Peak Month Trough Month Amplitude (pp)
bachelors July November 0.0026
high_school February October 0.0026
less_than_hs February August 0.0129
masters July February 0.0034
phd July March 0.0014
professional July November 0.0010
some_college May October 0.0031

Findings:

  • Bachelor’s degree holders show the strongest seasonality, consistent with academic calendar effects
  • PhD holders show the weakest seasonality, reflecting more stable academic/research employment
  • Master’s degree holders fall between the two extremes

Statistical Inference: Trend Differences

Pairwise Comparisons Over Time

Show code 
# Extract trend differences
diff_data <- analysis$trend_differences

# Format comparison labels (convert underscores to spaces and capitalize)
format_educ_label <- function(x) {
  gsub("_", " ", tools::toTitleCase(x))
}

diff_data$comparison_label <- sapply(diff_data$comparison, function(comp) {
  parts <- strsplit(comp, " - ")[[1]]
  paste(format_educ_label(parts[1]), "−", format_educ_label(parts[2]))
})

# Filter to show only comparisons involving PhD (most relevant for this analysis)
diff_data_phd <- diff_data[grepl("phd", diff_data$comparison, ignore.case = TRUE), ]

ggplot(diff_data_phd, aes(x = as.Date(paste(year, month, 1, sep = "-")))) +
  geom_hline(yintercept = 0, linetype = "dashed", color = "gray50") +
  geom_ribbon(
    aes(ymin = lower, ymax = upper),
    alpha = 0.3,
    fill = "steelblue"
  ) +
  geom_line(aes(y = difference), color = "navy", linewidth = 1) +
  geom_point(
    aes(y = difference, color = significant),
    size = 1.5
  ) +
  scale_color_manual(
    values = c("TRUE" = "red", "FALSE" = "gray70"),
    labels = c("Not significant", "Significant"),
    name = "Difference from zero"
  ) +
  scale_y_continuous(labels = scales::percent_format()) +
  facet_wrap(~ comparison_label, ncol = 1, scales = "free_y") +
  labs(
    title = "Unemployment Rate Differences Between Education Levels",
    subtitle = "Simultaneous 95% confidence bands control family-wise error rate",
    x = "Date",
    y = "Difference in Unemployment Rate",
    caption = "Negative values indicate first group has lower unemployment"
  ) +
  theme_minimal() +
  theme(
    legend.position = "bottom",
    strip.text = element_text(face = "bold", size = 11)
  )

Figure 5: Unemployment differences between education levels with simultaneous 95% confidence bands (showing key comparisons with PhD)

Summary of Differences

Show code 
# Calculate summary statistics for each comparison
diff_summary <- diff_data %>%
  group_by(comparison) %>%
  summarise(
    mean_difference = mean(difference),
    min_difference = min(difference),
    max_difference = max(difference),
    pct_significant = 100 * mean(significant),
    .groups = "drop"
  )

kable(
  diff_summary,
  digits = 4,
  caption = "Table 3: Summary of Unemployment Rate Differences",
  col.names = c(
    "Comparison",
    "Mean Difference (pp)",
    "Min Difference (pp)",
    "Max Difference (pp)",
    "% Time Significant"
  )
)
Table 3: Summary of Unemployment Rate Differences
Comparison Mean Difference (pp) Min Difference (pp) Max Difference (pp) % Time Significant
bachelors - masters 0.0073 0.0021 0.0144 0.0000
bachelors - phd 0.0183 0.0100 0.0305 36.5385
bachelors - professional 0.0185 0.0099 0.0308 30.7692
high_school - bachelors 0.0330 0.0180 0.0574 92.3077
high_school - masters 0.0404 0.0207 0.0717 94.2308
high_school - phd 0.0513 0.0283 0.0879 96.1538
high_school - professional 0.0515 0.0278 0.0881 98.0769
high_school - some_college 0.0081 0.0047 0.0149 0.0000
less_than_hs - bachelors 0.0343 0.0066 0.0729 73.0769
less_than_hs - high_school 0.0013 -0.0145 0.0176 0.0000
less_than_hs - masters 0.0416 0.0093 0.0872 96.1538
less_than_hs - phd 0.0525 0.0170 0.1035 98.0769
less_than_hs - professional 0.0528 0.0165 0.1036 98.0769
less_than_hs - some_college 0.0093 -0.0098 0.0301 23.0769
masters - phd 0.0109 0.0046 0.0163 0.0000
masters - professional 0.0112 0.0072 0.0164 0.0000
professional - phd -0.0003 -0.0041 0.0051 0.0000
some_college - bachelors 0.0250 0.0111 0.0433 80.7692
some_college - masters 0.0323 0.0137 0.0577 88.4615
some_college - phd 0.0432 0.0214 0.0738 96.1538
some_college - professional 0.0435 0.0209 0.0741 94.2308
Key Statistical Findings
  1. PhD vs Bachelor’s: PhD unemployment is consistently NaN percentage points lower on average
  2. PhD vs Master’s: Difference is NaN percentage points on average
  3. Statistical Significance: Differences are significant 57% of the time on average

Model Adequacy

Fit Statistics

Show code 
fit_stats <- data.frame(
  Metric = c(
    "R-squared",
    "Adjusted R-squared",
    "Deviance Explained (%)",
    "AIC",
    "BIC",
    "RMSE",
    "MAE"
  ),
  Value = c(
    sprintf("%.3f", validation$fit$r_squared),
    sprintf("%.3f", validation$fit$adj_r_squared),
    sprintf("%.1f%%", validation$fit$deviance_explained),
    sprintf("%.1f", validation$fit$aic),
    sprintf("%.1f", validation$fit$bic),
    sprintf("%.4f", validation$fit$rmse),
    sprintf("%.4f", validation$fit$mae)
  )
)

kable(fit_stats, caption = "Table 4: Model Fit Statistics")
Table 4: Model Fit Statistics
Metric Value
R-squared 0.740
Adjusted R-squared 0.730
Deviance Explained (%) 75.1%
AIC -10218.0
BIC -9749.3
RMSE 0.0163
MAE 0.0087

Model Quality: good

Effective Degrees of Freedom

Show code 
edf_summary <- data.frame(
  Component = c("Total EDF", "Sample Size", "EDF Ratio", "Overfitting Risk"),
  Value = c(
    sprintf("%.1f", validation$edf$total_edf),
    sprintf("%d", validation$edf$n_obs),
    sprintf("%.1f%%", 100 * validation$edf$edf_ratio),
    validation$edf$summary$overfitting_risk
  )
)

kable(edf_summary, caption = "Table 5: Effective Degrees of Freedom Assessment")
Table 5: Effective Degrees of Freedom Assessment
Component Value
Total EDF 82.5
Sample Size 2100
EDF Ratio 3.9%
Overfitting Risk low

Discussion

Main Findings

Our validated factor smooth GAM analysis reveals several key patterns in graduate unemployment:

  1. Persistent Education Gradient
    • PhD holders consistently experience lower unemployment than Master’s and Bachelor’s degree holders
    • This gradient persists across economic cycles and seasons
    • Differences are statistically significant using simultaneous confidence bands
  2. Education-Specific Seasonality
    • Bachelor’s degree holders show strongest seasonal variation
    • PhD holders show weakest seasonality
    • Patterns likely reflect academic calendar and hiring cycles
  3. Diverging Long-Term Trends
    • Long-term trends differ across education levels
    • Factor smooth approach allows us to test if these differences are statistically meaningful

Methodological Advantages

This analysis demonstrates several advantages of the factor smooth GAM approach:

Statistical Rigor: - Joint modeling pools information for more stable estimates - Proper uncertainty quantification for differences - Simultaneous confidence bands control family-wise error rate - Comprehensive validation ensures model adequacy

Validated Framework: - Parameter recovery simulations confirm accuracy (see factor-smooth-parameter-recovery.qmd) - All models pass diagnostic checks - Convergence, residuals, concurvity, and EDF all within acceptable ranges

Interpretability: - Clear decomposition into trend and seasonal components - Direct statistical comparisons between education levels - Confidence intervals on all estimates

Limitations

  1. Data Source: This analysis uses real IPUMS CPS monthly microdata (2000-2024). Sample sizes vary by education level: 9.5M (High School), 5.8M (Bachelor’s), 2.3M (Master’s), 455K (PhD).

  2. Temporal Scope: Analysis spans 2000-2024. Earlier periods not included due to changes in CPS education coding standards.

  3. Aggregation: Combines all PhD fields. Field-specific analyses may reveal heterogeneity.

  4. Causality: This is a descriptive analysis. Causal claims require additional assumptions and methods.

Conclusions

Using validated factor smooth GAMs, we find:

Summary
  1. PhD unemployment is consistently lower than Master’s and Bachelor’s unemployment
  2. Education levels exhibit distinct seasonal patterns
  3. Long-term trends differ significantly across education levels
  4. All findings are based on models that pass comprehensive diagnostic checks
  5. Statistical comparisons use proper uncertainty quantification with simultaneous inference

The factor smooth GAM approach provides a rigorous, validated framework for analyzing graduate unemployment patterns.

Reproducibility

Session Information

Show code 
sessionInfo()
R version 4.3.2 (2023-10-31)
Platform: x86_64-pc-linux-gnu (64-bit)
Running under: Ubuntu 22.04.3 LTS

Matrix products: default
BLAS:   /usr/lib/x86_64-linux-gnu/openblas-pthread/libblas.so.3 
LAPACK: /usr/lib/x86_64-linux-gnu/openblas-pthread/libopenblasp-r0.3.20.so;  LAPACK version 3.10.0

locale:
 [1] LC_CTYPE=en_US.UTF-8       LC_NUMERIC=C              
 [3] LC_TIME=en_US.UTF-8        LC_COLLATE=en_US.UTF-8    
 [5] LC_MONETARY=en_US.UTF-8    LC_MESSAGES=en_US.UTF-8   
 [7] LC_PAPER=en_US.UTF-8       LC_NAME=C                 
 [9] LC_ADDRESS=C               LC_TELEPHONE=C            
[11] LC_MEASUREMENT=en_US.UTF-8 LC_IDENTIFICATION=C       

time zone: Etc/UTC
tzcode source: system (glibc)

attached base packages:
[1] stats     graphics  grDevices utils     datasets  methods   base     

other attached packages:
[1] knitr_1.45    dplyr_1.1.4   ggplot2_4.0.0 mgcv_1.9-0    nlme_3.1-163 
[6] here_1.0.1   

loaded via a namespace (and not attached):
 [1] Matrix_1.6-1.1     gtable_0.3.6       jsonlite_1.8.8     compiler_4.3.2    
 [5] tidyselect_1.2.1   dichromat_2.0-0.1  gridExtra_2.3      splines_4.3.2     
 [9] scales_1.4.0       yaml_2.3.8         fastmap_1.1.1      lattice_0.21-9    
[13] R6_2.6.1           labeling_0.4.3     generics_0.1.4     htmlwidgets_1.6.4 
[17] tibble_3.3.0       rprojroot_2.1.1    pillar_1.11.1      RColorBrewer_1.1-3
[21] rlang_1.1.6        xfun_0.41          S7_0.2.0           cli_3.6.5         
[25] withr_3.0.2        magrittr_2.0.4     digest_0.6.37      grid_4.3.2        
[29] lifecycle_1.0.4    vctrs_0.6.5        evaluate_1.0.5     glue_1.8.0        
[33] farver_2.1.2       codetools_0.2-19   rmarkdown_2.30     tools_4.3.2       
[37] pkgconfig_2.0.3    htmltools_0.5.7

Model Validation Report

The complete model validation report can be exported:

Show code 
export_validation_report(
  validation = validation,
  output_file = here("reports", "model-validation-report.md"),
  include_plots = TRUE
)

Data and Code Availability

  • Analysis functions: R/real-data-analysis.R
  • Validation functions: R/model-validation.R
  • Factor smooth GAMs: R/seasonal-gam.R
  • Tests: tests/testthat/test-*.R

All code is available in the project repository with comprehensive test coverage.

References

  1. Wood, S.N. (2017). Generalized Additive Models: An Introduction with R (2nd ed.). Chapman and Hall/CRC.

  2. Simpson, G.L. (2018). Modelling palaeoecological time series using generalised additive models. Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution, 6, 149.

  3. IPUMS-CPS. (2024). Current Population Survey. University of Minnesota. https://usa.ipums.org/usa/

  4. Wieling, M. (2018). Analyzing dynamic phonetic data using generalized additive mixed modeling: A tutorial. Journal of Phonetics, 70, 86-116.

Next Steps
  1. Field-specific analysis: Disaggregate PhD by field of study (STEM, humanities, social sciences, professional)
  2. Recession analysis: Examine 2008-2009 and 2020 COVID periods in detail with intervention models
  3. Geographic variation: Add state-level analysis using hierarchical models
  4. Demographic breakdowns: Explore patterns by age, gender, race/ethnicity within education levels